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Last updated 5-1-09.
Advice
Race Record: 2-0-2 in 6Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Rene Douglas Dosage Index: 3.80 Pedigree: Chapel Royal/Word o' Wisdom, by Hennessy Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Best Beyer: 94 Last Beyer: 94 Post Position: 4
Won the Lexington Stakes at Keeneland 4/18 by 1 length, coming from last to first and earning a 94 Beyer while passing 7 horses in the last furlong. Raced poorly on dirt in the Sunland Derby before that, eventually finishing 5th by 5 lengths. That was also his longest race, his only race at 1 1/8 miles. The only other race he has actually won is his maiden. Note that one of his 3rd place finishes is actually better than it sounds. He actually finished second by a neck, but was disqualified and placed third in the Sept. 13 Arlington-Washington Futurity after lugging out and bumping another horse. He was 3rd in an allowance in February at Santa Anita Park. He finished 9th to Square Eddie in the Lane's End Breeders Futurity last fall.
Atomic Rain Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Trainer: Kelly Breen
Jockey: Joe Bravo Dosage Index: 3.40 Race Record: 1-3-1 in 7 Pedigree: Smart Strike/Paradise Pond, by Cox's Ridge Best Beyer: 95
Last Beyer: 95
Post Position: 14
Most recently he was 4th in the Wood Memorial. Before that he was 3rd in a Gulfstream Park allowance 3/6. He was 7th in the Sam F. Davis Stakes 2/14 at Tampa Bay Downs. His only win was in a maiden special weight in June at Monmouth Park. Raise A Native is in his sire line.
Chocolate Candy
Trainer: Jerry Hollendorfer
Jockey: Mike Smith
Dosage Index: 2.08 (DQ)
Race Record: 4-2-1 in 9
Pedigree: Candy Ride/Crownette, by Seattle Slew Morning Line Odds: 20-1 Best Beyer: 94 Last Beyer: 94 Post Position: 11
Untested on dirt, but working nicely this week at Churchill Downs, according to veteran Bloodhorse writer Steve Haskin, who also said his coat looked the most improved over the last few days. Nice closing style. He came from last to finish 2nd by a length in the 4/4 Santa Anita Derby after making a 5-wide move around the far turn. He challenged for the lead, but couldn't quite get it. It looked to me like a little more ground would have been beneficial. He earned a 94 Beyer. Note that his Beyer has improved in each of his last 6 starts, though. I think there's still room for more improvement. Won the 2/14 El Camino Real at 1 1/8 miles by 1/2 length under a "vigorous hand ride." He earned a 90 Beyer. Won the 1/17 California Derby. Was 3rd in the CashCall Futurity by 1 1/2 lengths. Won the Real Quiet Stakes. Took 4 tries to break his maiden. Will not have any distance trouble. Love seeing Seattle Slew as the broodmare sire. Could be improving at right time. Second dam is a half-sister to Affirmed, by Alydar. How ironic that a horse with this name is owned by diet maven Jenny Craig!
Desert Party
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor Jockey: Ramon Dominguez Dosage Index: 3.80 Race Record: 4-1-0 in 6 Pedigree: Street Cry/Sage Cat, by Tabasco Cat Morning Line Odds: 15-1 Best Beyer: 78 (sprint) Last Beyer: 111 (Racing Post Rating) Post Position: 19
2nd in the UAE Derby 3/28 in Dubai by 1/2 length, but beat the 3rd place horse by 15 lengths. Won UAE 2,000 Guineas on 2/13, in which talented stablemate Vineyard Haven finished fourth, by 4 3/4 lengths. He also beat older horses from the southern hemisphere in that race. He was originally thought to be best at shorter distances. I'm still not convinced a horse trained in Dubai can beat others in the Derby unless he's much the best. I don't think this is the year, but I could be wrong. It's worth noting that both Godolphin horses (Regal Ransom is the other one) came to the United States far earlier than in past years to prep for the Derby. Desert Party has Raise A Native in his sire line. His sire, Street Cry, also sired 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense. Desert Party trained in the U.S. last year, winning the Grade II Sanford Stakes by a length 7/24. He was 6th by 9 3/4 in the Grade I Hopeful Stakes on 9/8. This horse won the 6-furlong Sanford last year on an off track, so could be OK if the track is not fast.
Dunkirk
Trainer: Todd Pletcher Jockey: Edgar Prado Dosage Index: 3.00 Race Record: 2-1-0 in 3 Pedigree: Unbridled's Song/Secret Status, by A.P. Indy Morning Line Odds: 4-1 Best Beyer: 108
Last Beyer: 108 Post Position: 15
He was 2nd by 1 3/4 in 3/28 Florida Derby after making a 5-wide move and earning a 108 Beyer. His trainer complained of an unfair speed advantage on the track all day, but it could have just been he wasn't fully fit for his first start against stakes company. He earned a 108 Beyer for the effort. He won a 2/19 allowance at Gulfstream Park by 4 3/4, earning a 98 Beyer. Broke his maiden at first asking 1/24 at Gulfstream Park, winning by 5 3/4. Note that he did not race at age 2, so if he wins the Derby he'll be the first to do so without that foundation since 1882. He's also had only three lifetime starts. Distance shouldn't be a problem. Note that he's arguably one of the best bred horses in the field, by a son of a Derby winner and out of a Kentucky Oaks winner. Interestingly, he not only has Raise A Native in his sire line, but also is inbred to him through his dam's side of the family.
Flying Private
Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas
Jockey: Robby Albarado Dosage Index: 3.67 Race Record: 1-4-0 in 10 Pedigree: Fusaichi Pegasus/Beautiful Treasure, by Unbridled Morning Line Odds: 50-1 Best Beyer: 94 Last Beyer: 91 Post Position: 20
Most recently he finished 5th by 6 lengths in the 4/9 Arkansas Derby after an outside trip, but he had a breathing obstruction that hurt him then. His only win was a Saratoga maiden special weight at 6 furlongs in August, although he did finish 2nd by a nose in a November allowance at Churchill Downs. Note that in his other race at Churchill Downs, his debut, 6/19, he finished 8th by 11 3/4 lengths. Flying Private also has three other 2nd place finishes, most recently in the Lane's End Stakes 3/21 at Turfway Park. One has to wonder if he has the class to keep up with many of the other horses who have finished quite a bit better against stiffer competition. Then again, D. Wayne Lukas knows what it takes to win the Derby better than almost anyone, and both Flying Private's sire and his damsire won the Derby. He also has Raise A Native in his sire line. He finished 5th in his only start on an off track.
Friesan Fire
Trainer: Larry Jones
Jockey: Gabriel Saez
Dosage Index: 3.00
Race Record: 4-1-1 in 7
Pedigree: A.P. Indy/Bollinger, by Dehere
Morning Line Odds: 5-1 Best Beyer: 104 Last Beyer: 104 Post Position: 6
He adds blinkers for the Derby, and definitely has tactical speed. Friesan Fire blew away 8 others in the 3/14 Louisiana Derby, winning by 7 1/4 lengths, but it was on a sloppy track. It was the largest winning margin in that race since 1963, and he earned a 104 Beyer figure. Gee, wonder how much faster he would have gone on a fast track? The horse who was 2nd, Papa Clem, came back to win the Arkansas Derby in his next race. Friesan Fire has now won all three of his starts this year. Plans call for him to train up to the Derby, which means he will be coming off a 7-week layoff. I would normally say that's suicide, but his trainer has finished 2nd in the Derby twice (most recently with Eight Belles), so he surely knows what he is doing. In fact, Hard Spun finished 2nd for this trainer in 2007 off a 6-week layoff. Plus, Friesan Fire is a late foal, born April 30, so maybe he could use a little time off. He won the 2/7 Risen Star Stakes by 2 lengths drawing away, beating 12 rivals. He earned a 96 Beyer speed figure for the effort. Won 1/10 LeComte by 1 1/2 at Fair Grounds, making a move on the final turn and drawing away in the stretch. Tired to finish 2nd in 12/18 1-mile allowance at Aqueduct. Was 4th in 11/2 Nashua Stakes. Was 3rd in the Futurity Stakes at Belmont. Won 6-furlong maiden his first try back in August at Delaware Park. Stalker with great tactical speed, the kind of running style I really like in the Derby. I sure wish he had had a race at 1 1/8 miles, though. He's never gone farther than 1 1/16. The pedigree says distance shouldn't be a problem, but is he fit after that kind of layoff to go so much farther than he ever has before? I do like that he is inbred to Secretariat. Would be nice for this hard-luck trainer to get his Derby win this year after the heartbreaks of the last two years. I also like that he seems to have a laid-back personality, with a loud noise he encountered during training at Keeneland in the last couple of weeks not bothering him a bit. That could be an advantage on Derby Day. Obviously, this one should have no trouble with sloppy/muddy going.
General Quarters
Trainer: Tom McCarthy Jockey: Julien Leparoux Dosage Index: 2.69 Race Record: 3-3-1 in 11 Pedigree: Sky Mesa/Ecology, by Unbridled's Song Morning Line Odds: 20-1 Best Beyer: 102 Last Beyer: 95 Post Position: 12
Reports indicate he has galloped well at Churchill Downs this week but that he is not fond of the slop at all. Note that he is the only winner of 2009 graded stakes on both dirt and synthetic surfaces. He won the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland in Lexington on 4/11 by 1 1/2 lengths, earning a 95 Beyer, and coming home fast. Previously he finished 5th in the Tampa Bay Derby 3/14. He won the Sam F. Davis Stakes on the dirt at Tampa Bay Downs 2/14 by 3 1/2 lengths, earning a 102 Beyer. His owner and trainer, Tom McCarthy, is a 75-year-old retired educator and former principal at three Louisville area high schools. This is his only horse. He has one of the best stories of this year's Derby. Previous starts included the 6-furlong Inaugeral Stakes, in which he stumbled so badly his nose hit the ground (according to a recent article by Steve Haskin of Bloodhorse) and came from 12th and last place to finish 2nd by a length. In the 7-furlong Pasco Stakes, Musket Man, eventual winner of the Tampa Bay and Illinois derbies, beat him by a length. Credit must also be given to Mark Miller, who trained the horse over the winter in Florida as Mr. McCarthy was recovering from skin cancer. This one is also inbred to, among others, Secretariat, although it's pretty far back in his pedigree. General Quarters won a 4 1/2 furlong maiden race, his debut, by a neck 5/30/08 at Churchill Downs. In his other races at Churchill Downs, he finished 6th, 8th, and 3rd by 8 1/4 lengths.
Hold Me Back
Trainer: Bill Mott Jockey: Kent Desormeaux Dosage Index: 3.44 Race Record: 3-1-0 in 5 Pedigree: Giant's Causeway/Restraint, by Unbridled's Song Morning Line Odds: 15-1 Best Beyer: 97 Last Beyer: 93 Post Position: 5
Steve Haskin notes that this one looks good this week at Churchill Downs as well. He was 2nd in the 4/11 Blue Grass Stakes to General Quarters by 1 1/2 lengths, earning a 93 Beyer. He won the 3/21 Lane's End Stakes on the synthetic surface at Turfway Park by 1 3/4 lengths, coming off a four-month layoff. He covered the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.63, and earned a 97 Beyer speed figure. He's won three races and finished second once on a synthetic surface. It's worth noting that he finished 5th of 7 in his only start on dirt. The question now is is he improving at the right time, or just a synthetic specialist with no business at Churchill Downs? Has a nice closing kick. Bill Mott is normally known for being good with older horses.
I Want Revenge
Trainer: Jeff Mullins
Jockey: Joe Talamo
Dosage Index: 3.00 (DQ)
Race Record: 3-1-4 in 8
Pedigree: Stephen Got Even/Meguial, by Roy Morning Line Odds: 3-1 Best Beyer: 113 Last Beyer: 103 Post Position: 13
Morning line favorite. He's never been worse than 3rd. There's also nothing to knock about how he's taken to the Churchill Downs track with a bullet workout (47.1 over four furlongs), fastest of 49 at the distance, on Tuesday. He won the Wood Memorial Stakes 4/4, even though at the starting gate he broke in the air. I really liked the way he won this one, finding a narrow opening between horses in the mid-stretch to win by 1 1/2 lengths. He had been the last of 8 through the backstretch, and he finished his last eighth in .12 flat, into a strong headwind! He covered the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.49, and earned a 103 Beyer. In the 3/7 Gotham Stakes, his first try on dirt, he moved up nicely, winning by 8 1/2 lengths. He earned a 113 Beyer speed figure for the effort. He was 3rd in the 2/7 Robert B. Lewis Stakes after stalking very fast early speed and making a 3-wide move, at one point leading by 1 1/2 lengths, but then fading in the stretch. He had some trouble handling the track, which had been rained on quite a bit and was still spotty. He got a 91 Beyer. In 12/20 CashCall Futurity, he was 2nd by a nose to Pioneerof the Nile. Won 10/29 Maiden Special Weight at 8 1/2 furlongs. Previously had 3 3rds at sprinting distances. Fans of the Animal Planet show "Jockeys" will recognize 19-year-old jockey Joe Talamo as the jockey piloting this horse. Inexperienced jockeys aren't always great in the Derby, but then Steve Cauthen was 18 when he won the Triple Crown on Affirmed, so who knows? This horse has sure has been doing a lot of traveling back and forth across the country lately. He seems to be handling it well. I hope it doesn't get to him come Derby Day. Note that IEAH Stables, which owned last year's winner, Big Brown, recently purchased I Want Revenge. Trainer Jeff Mullins can be a bit of a controversial figure, once calling all people who bet on horses idiots. He later apologized.
Join in the Dance Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Chris DeCarlo Dosage Index: 2.00 Race Record: 1-3-1 in 8 Pedigree: Sky Mesa/Dance Darling, by Devil's Bag Best Beyer: 90
Last Beyer: 87
Post Position: 9
He was most recently 5th in the Blue Grass Stakes. Before that, he was 2nd in the Tampa Bay Derby, losing to Musket Man but beating General Quarters. He was third in an allowance 2/14 at Gulfstream Park. His only win came in a maiden special weight last July at Saratoga. It took him three tries to break his maiden. He has plenty of early speed, and his entry should assure an honest pace in this year's race, along with Regal Ransom.
Mine That Bird
Trainer: Bennie Woolley
Jockey: Calvin Borel
Dosage Index: 5.40 Race Record: 4-1-0 in 8 Pedigree: Birdstone, Mining My Own, by Smart Strike Morning Line Odds: 50-1 Best Beyer: 81 Last Beyer: 80 Post Position: 8
Mr. Hot Stuff
Trainer: Eoin Harty Jockey: undecided Dosage Index: 2.11 Race Record: 1-0-3 in 7 Pedigree: Tiznow, Sweet Damsel, by Turkoman. Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Best Beyer: 96 Last Beyer: 93 Post Position: 3
Untested on dirt. Not working so great at Churchill Downs this week. He finished 3rd in the 4/4 Santa Anita Derby by 2 lengths. He's only once been better than 3rd, when he broke his maiden at Santa Anita Park. Note that it took him 5 tries to break his maiden. Love his sire, back-to-back Breeders Cup Classic winner Tiznow. His Beyers aren't bad, and he may be overlooked by a lot of people. Seems like he could be a decent longshot if you like a horse at a price. Note that he is a full brother to Colonel John, the second betting choice in last year's Derby (who finished 6th).
Musket Man
Trainer: Derek Ryan Jockey: Eibar Coa Dosage Index: 4.00 Race Record: 5-0-1 in 6 Pedigree: Yonaguska/Fortuesque, by Fortunate Prospect Morning Line Odds: 20-1 Best Beyer: 98 Last Beyer: 98 Post Position: 2
Never finished off the board in six races, and won five of those. Proving his Tampa Bay Derby win was no fluke, he won the 4/4 Illinois Derby at Hawthorne Park, holding off Giant Oak by 2 lengths after making a 4-wide move. He covered the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.91, and earned a 98 Beyer. He had edged out longshot Join in the Dance to win the Tampa Bay Derby by a neck after the favorites did nothing. He earned a 90 Beyer. He covered the 1 1/16-mile race in 1:43.67, just a little more than half a second off the track record. Previously he had been 3rd in the 2/14 Sam F. Davis by more than 6 lengths, a race that General Quarters won. Before that, he won 3 starts, including the 1/17 Pasco Stakes at Tampa Bay, beating General Quarters by a length. He won a 6-furlong allowance race at Philadelphia Park in November. He broke his maiden at Belmont in October. With a 4.00 Dosage, significant questions exist about his pedigree at longer distances. This horse has certainly been quite a good investment for his owners. He was a $15,000 purchase at the September yearling sale at Keeneland. He's never met the quality of horses he will see in the Derby, though. Note that jockey Eibar Coa chose to ride him over General Quarters.
Nowhere to Hide Morning Line Odds: 50-1
Trainer: Nick Zito Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan Dosage Index: 2.33 Race Record: 1-2-1 in 8 Pedigree: Vindication/Stirring, Seeking the Gold Best Beyer: 90
Last Beyer: 80
Post Position: 18
Most recently this horse was 4th in the Illinois Derby, earning an 80 Beyer that ties with Mine That Bird's as the worst Beyer for any contender in his last race. Before that he was 4th in the Tampa Bay Derby and 4th in the Risen Star Stakes. He broke his maiden Dec. 13 at Calder. Love that his trainer is a two-time Derby winner, but only having won once and finishing off the board in his last several races should give most people reason not to bet him. He finished 2nd in his only start on an off track.
Papa Clem
Trainer: Gary Stute
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano Dosage Index: 3.36
Race Record: 2-2-0 in 6
Pedigree: Smart Strike/Miss Houdini, by Belong to Me
Morning Line Odds: 20-1 Best Beyer: 101 Last Beyer: 101 Post Position: 7
After several reports that this horse was not working well at Churchill Downs over the past couple of weeks, veteran Bloodhorse writer Steve Haskin confirmed that the rider actually misjudged the finish line in his last work. Papa Clem then had a sharp 3-furlong blowout in .34 on Thursday morning. Of course, that doesn't explain any previous problems going over the track, so make of it what you will. Winner of the Arkansas Derby, 4/11 by 1/2 length, earning a 101 Beyer. He battled in the stretch with Old Fashioned, who suffered a career-ending knee injury in the race. He could be improving at the right time, and he has tactical speed. Note that he's never been worse than 2nd in races around two turns. Papa Clem was 2nd by 7 1/4 lengths to Friesan Fire in the 3/14 Louisiana Derby in his first start on natural dirt, earning a 91 Beyer. Note that it was an off track, so he could do well if the track comes up muddy or sloppy. 2nd by a half-length to Pioneerof the Nile in the 2/7 Robert B. Lewis Stakes, earning a 93 Beyer. Had previously won his 1-mile maiden in his third attempt 12/29 at Santa Anita Park. Tends to have early speed in races. Has Raise A Native in his sire line, and is also inbred to him through his dam.
Pioneerof the Nile
Trainer: Bob Baffert
Jockey: Garrett Gomez Dosage Index: 3.89 (DQ) Race Record: 5-0-1 in 8 Pedigree: Empire Maker/Star of Goshen, by Lord at War Morning Line Odds: 4-1 Best Beyer: 96 Last Beyer: 96 Post Position: 16
Veteran Bloodhorse writer Steve Haskin said of all the Derby entrants, this week this horse's coat looked best, the sign of a happy, healthy horse. Untested on dirt. Won the 4/4 Santa Anita Derby, but without facing The Pamplemousse, who had to scratch with an injury and is now off the Derby trail. The race had no pace, and he would not relax, even though he's normally a closer. He held off a late bid from Chocolate Candy, though, and recovered well from clipping heels going into the first turn. He covered the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.17, and earned a 96 Beyer. This made four graded stakes wins in a row, which is mighty impressive. He won the 3/14 San Felipe Stakes easily, turning back a challenge in the stretch from two other horses. He won by 1 1/4 lengths. It probably should have been more, but he has a tendency to loaf a bit when he's ahead. He covered the 1 1/16 miles in 1:43.35 and earned a 90 Beyer figure. He won 2/7 Robert B. Lewis Stakes by a half-length after being late early, overcoming traffic problems on the turn, running 5 wide in stretch, and finally coming down the stretch like an express train, as the race caller put it. He earned a 94 Beyer. Won 12/20 Hollywood Park CashCall Futurity at 1 1/16 miles. 5th by 2 3/4 in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. 3rd in the Breeders Futurity on a synthetic surface. Broke his maiden on the turf at Saratoga. He was a late foal, born May 5, so will not actually be 3 biologically until just after the Derby. I love the way this guy closes, but am a little worried that his speed figures haven't been as good as many other contenders' figures. Some people say that Beyers on synthetic surfaces may be a tad artificially low, but I haven't decided whether I buy that argument. Pedigree wise, he has Raise A Native in his sire line. I've also seen an awful lot of good turf horses descended from his damsire, Lord at War. Because of that, I wonder if he'll make the transfer to dirt anywhere near as easily as I Want Revenge and Papa Clem did. It's worth noting, thoug, that he worked well both in the slop and on a fast track at Churchill Downs in recent weeks. It's also worth noting that this horse's first trainer, Hall-of-Famer Bill Mott, didn't try him on dirt, so perhaps didn't think he'd be any good on it. Instead, he started him off on the grass.
Regal Ransom
Trainer: Saeed bin Suroor Jockey: Alan Garcia
Dosage Index: 2.00 Race Record: 2-2-0 in 5 Pedigree: Distorted Humor/Kellis Ransom, by Red Ransom Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Best Beyer: 93 (sprint) Last Beyer: 112 (Racing Post Rating) Post Position: 10
Another horse based in Dubai. He won the United Arab Emirates (UAE) Derby 3/28, beating stablemate Desert Party by 1/2 length. He is a virtual unknown, but the Dubai horses have traditionally not done as well when traveling all that way for the Kentucky Derby. He's a definite early speed horse. Speed doesn't win a lot of Derbies, but it does win some, including War Emblem's Derby a few years ago. Regal Ransom has Raise A Native in his sire line. Note that he will not physically turn 3 until May 26 and that, coming from Dubai, he has already competed against southern hemisphere horses, some of whom are as much as 10 months older than him. His sire, Distorted Humor, sired Derby winner Funny Cide in 2003.
Summer Bird
Trainer: Tim Ice Jockey: Chris Rosier
Dosage Index: 2.56 Race Record: 1-0-1 in 3 Pedigree: Birdstone/Hong Kong Squall, by Summer Squall Morning Line Odds: 50-1 Best Beyer: 99 Last Beyer: 99 Post Position: 17
He was 3rd by 1 1/4 length, was 5 wide at the quarter pole and gaining at the end of the 4/11 Arkansas Derby, which Papa Clem won. This horse is extremely inexperienced, however, with only three lifetime starts. Both races before the Arkansas Derby were maiden special weights. He is unraced at 2. He made his debut 3/1 at Oaklawn Park and then broke his maiden 3/19, his first race around two turns. Has a closing running style. This one could have longshot potential.
West Side Bernie
Trainer: Kelly Breen Jockey: Stewart Elliott Dosage Index: 1.89 (DQ) Race Record: 2-2-1 in 7 Pedigree: Bernstein/Time Honored, by Gilded Time Morning Line Odds: 30-1 Best Beyer: 101 Last Beyer: 101 Post Position: 1
Lost the Wood Memorial by 1 1/2 lengths, finishing 2nd and earning a 101 Beyer. Previously he had been 6th in the Lane's End Stakes, so I wonder if he was just the best of the rest after I Want Revenge? He seems to have been better earlier in his career. He was 3rd in the 1/31 Holy Bull, edging out Beethoven. That earned him a 90 Beyer. He was the only closer to do anything in that race or the Donn Handicap on the same card, and made a big move to wind up where he finished. 2nd to Big Drama in the 12/5 Delta Jackpot (Gr. III) by 1 length. 6th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile by 3 lengths after a wide trip. Won the Ky. Cup Juvenile Stakes 9/27 by 3 lengths on a synthetic surface. Broke maiden 8/28 at Monmouth. I like his being inbred to Princequillo, but it's quite a ways back. Also inbred to Secretariat, Damascus, Northern Dancer and Bold Ruler.
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